FEMELY Fundamental Analysis, Mehr 1405: Profit Forecast and Valuation

Fundai Fundamental Analysis Team · October 4, 2026 · 16 min read

Last updated: October 25, 2026, 01:29

This article is updated as new reports come in.

FEMELY's monthly sales and position in its industry, quarterly and product profit margins, the company's new fiscal year 1405 forecast versus the previous version, and FEMELY's P/E next to its peers, with Codal data through 30 Mehr 1405.

In this article, our FEMELY fundamental analysis looks at the fundamental position of National Iranian Copper Industries, ticker FEMELY. FEMELY also publishes consolidated statements, but every figure in this article comes from the parent company's separate financial statements. Using the monthly reports published on Codal, we assess revenue and profitability trends, the profit margin, the factors that will shape future performance and the company's valuation ratios. Finally, based on financial information published up to 30 Mehr 1405, we review the profit outlook and the main opportunities and risks for this stock.

3 key points in the FEMELY fundamental analysis

1. Introduction to National Iranian Copper Industries and its industry

National Iranian Copper Industries (FEMELY) is one of the basic metals companies and, by market value, the largest in this group among stocks with a P/E ratio.

FEMELY's sales basket consists of cathode, wire rod, copper concentrate, molybdenum concentrate, gold and silver concentrate, and molybdenum oxide. The company sells these products both on the domestic market and abroad. In the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405, cathode alone made up 66.8% of sales value; for this reason, the company's profitability depends more than anything on the price and sales volume of this product.

FEMELY trades on the Tehran Stock Exchange, has 1,440 billion shares, and its market value reached 4,161,600 billion tomans on 29 Mehr 1405. The company's fiscal year closes at the end of Esfand.

On the cost side, the largest raw material purchase by FEMELY in the 6 months ended Shahrivar 1405 was copper concentrate, at 74.9% of purchase value; so the price of this input affects cost of goods sold more than any other.

To see the revenue and product mix, visit the "At a glance" section on the FEMELY page on Fundai; the company's position in its industry is also covered on the basic metals industry page.

2. Monthly reports and FEMELY's sales trend

FEMELY's sales in the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405 exceeded its sales for the whole of the previous fiscal year. According to the FEMELY monthly reports, the company sold a total of 329,899.8 billion tomans in the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405, up 225.7% from the same period last year (101,291.1 billion tomans). Sales for the whole of the previous fiscal year were 321,889.5 billion tomans. Of sales before discounts, 257,568.4 billion tomans (78.1%) were domestic and 72,331.4 billion tomans (21.9%) were exports; in the same period last year, exports accounted for 13.2%.

Sales in Shahrivar 1405 reached 82,377.2 billion tomans, up 24.1% from Mordad 1405 (66,395.1 billion tomans) and up 274.9% from Shahrivar 1404 (21,973.8 billion tomans). In all 6 of this year's 6 months, sales were higher than in the same month last year. The chart below compares each month's sales with the same month last year.

The table below ranks products by their share of cumulative sales in the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405 and compares each product's selling price in Shahrivar 1405 with Mordad 1405 and Shahrivar 1404. The price is calculated by dividing the month's sales value by the same month's sales volume. The cathode (domestic) price in Shahrivar 1405 reached 2,382.4 million tomans per tonne, up 8.6% from the previous month and up 230.3% from Shahrivar 1404. Cumulative cathode (domestic) sales volume in the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405 was 75,841 tonnes, against 81,106 tonnes in the same period last year.

"No sales" means the product recorded no sales in that market in that month. Details for each product are in the FEMELY monthly reports.

FEMELY sells part of its domestic output on the Iran Mercantile Exchange. Each month's trading on the Mercantile Exchange closes before that month's monthly report is published on Codal, so these figures give an early look at the next report. In recent months this guide has been fairly accurate: rial domestic sales on the Mercantile Exchange in Khordad 1405 were 37,319.0 billion tomans, while the domestic sales in the Codal monthly report for the same month were 37,220.4 billion tomans; in Tir 1405 it was 29,302.3 against 30,809.6 billion tomans. That is not always the case: in Esfand 1404 the Mercantile Exchange recorded 10,158.6 billion tomans while Codal domestic sales were 44,204.6 billion tomans, and in Farvardin 1405 it was the reverse, 22,834.3 against 14,001.6 billion tomans. So the Mercantile Exchange shows the direction and level of domestic sales better than the exact figure in the report.

FEMELY's rial domestic sales on the Mercantile Exchange in Mehr 1405 (through 29 Mehr) reached 69,429.1 billion tomans, 3.8% more than in Shahrivar 1405 (66,863.5 billion tomans). The volume of these same trades also rose from 87,309 tonnes in Shahrivar to 103,527 tonnes in Mehr, which is 18.6% more. If the pattern of previous months repeats, these figures point to domestic sales staying at a high level in the Mehr Codal report; domestic sales in the Shahrivar report were 73,590.6 billion tomans. Export sales are not in these figures, and the Mehr report should be checked against Codal itself once it is published.

FEMELY compared with the basic metals industry

To see how much of FEMELY's growth comes from the company itself, we measured its monthly sales against its own industry. "Industry" in this section means the basic metals companies that filed that month's monthly report and had positive sales in the same month last year (49 companies in each of the three months from Tir to Shahrivar 1405); industry growth is the growth in these companies' combined sales. In all three months FEMELY had the largest monthly sales in the industry, and its share of industry sales rose from 24.6% in Tir to 28.1% in Mordad and 29.2% in Shahrivar; that is, its position in the industry has strengthened month by month.

FEMELY's sales growth in each of the three months was above both total industry growth and the median company growth; in Shahrivar it was 274.9% against 156.5% for the whole industry and 149.7% for the median. FEMELY's growth rank was 5, 14 and 10 out of 49 companies; for a company with the industry's largest sales base, placing in the top ten for growth is notable. One point should not be overlooked: the median company growth over these three months was between 134.7% and 149.7%, meaning a large part of the industry's growth comes from the effect of prices and the exchange rate, which has lifted all companies. So the meaningful signal for FEMELY is not the growth figure itself but its margin above the industry.

Among the eight largest companies in the industry by Shahrivar sales, only FULAZH grew faster than FEMELY (412.3%, from a much smaller base). FOULAD, the second-largest, sold 63,941.8 billion tomans and grew 151.2%. Compared with Mordad, FEMELY's sales rose 24.1% and total industry sales rose 19.6%.

3. FEMELY financial statement and profit margin analysis

In the FEMELY fundamental analysis, the income statements for the last 5 fiscal years show how the company's revenue and profit have changed. According to the FEMELY income statement, annual operating revenue rose from 80,946.8 billion tomans in fiscal year 1400 to 321,889.5 billion tomans in fiscal year 1404, and net profit over the same period rose from 50,064.3 to 150,601.2 billion tomans. In fiscal year 1404, revenue grew 79.8% and net profit grew 91.6%.

The annual gross profit margin over these 5 years ranged between 54.9% and 66.2%. Over the same period operating revenue grew 297.7% and cost of goods sold grew 395.6%; so costs grew faster than sales and pushed the margin down.

Quarterly and period profit margins

The gross profit margin for the quarter ended Shahrivar 1405 was 71.1%, against 74.4% in the previous quarter and 53.0% in the same quarter last year. In the history of this same quarter, the highest gross margin was 71.1% (1405) and the lowest 26.2% (1395), and the 19-year average is 51.7%; this quarter is above the average. The net profit margin for the quarter ended Shahrivar 1405 was 56.6%, against 55.9% in the previous quarter and 32.2% in the same quarter last year. In the history of this same quarter, the highest net margin was 83.5% (1397) and the lowest 11.0% (1394), and the 19-year average is 46.8%; this quarter is above the average.

FEMELY's latest interim report covers 6 months; period analysis is compared only with the same period last year: the 6-month gross profit margin rose from 56.5% to 72.4% and the net margin from 37.4% to 56.3%. See the full trend in the FEMELY profit margin history.

Product gross profit margins

The gross margin on cathode (domestic), the largest revenue item, was 76.6% in the quarter ended Shahrivar 1405, against 75.1% in the previous quarter and 46.6% in the same quarter last year. The margins on copper concentrate (domestic) and sulfuric acid (domestic) rose from the previous quarter, while those on cathode (export), wire rod (domestic) and molybdenum concentrate (domestic) fell.

What changed from the previous report?

The 6-month Shahrivar report moved several key indicators in the FEMELY fundamental analysis. The Shahrivar quarter alone had 200,142.4 billion tomans of revenue and 113,265.6 billion tomans of net profit, and earnings per share for the quarter came to 787 rials, against 692 rials in the Khordad quarter. The gross margin for the quarter was 71.1%, lower than Khordad's 74.4%; but the net margin rose from 55.9% to 56.6%, so net profit was not hurt by the fall in gross margin. The 6-month result is net profit of 185,854.2 billion tomans, 390.2% more than the same period last year. The table below compares the key indicators with the previous version of this analysis; the forecast comparison is in section 4-d.

The fall in P/E from 21.6 to 13.9 is less a sign that the stock became cheaper than the result of earnings catching up with the price: the price fell only 5.2%, but trailing twelve-month EPS rose from 1,411 to 2,073 rials. Among products, the gross margin on cathode (export) fell to 29.4% in the Shahrivar quarter; it was 70.9% in the Khordad quarter (see the product margin table). The debt-to-assets ratio rose from 40.0% to 44.2%, still below the industry's 54.7%. Shahrivar sales were also revised from 82,359.0 to 82,377.2 billion tomans through a correction FEMELY filed on 30 Mehr to its monthly report; the figures in this analysis use the corrected version.

4. FEMELY profit forecast for fiscal year 1405

According to the company's own forecast, FEMELY's gross profit in fiscal year 1405 will reach 390,133.4 billion tomans. The forecast was published on Codal together with the (unaudited) 6-month financial statements ended Shahrivar 1405 (latest version, 30 Mehr 1405). For the remaining 6 months of the year, the company has estimated each product's sales volume and value, cost of goods sold and general expenses. The "12-month estimate" column is the sum of actual results for the first 6 months and the company's estimate for the remaining 6 months. These figures are the company's estimates, not Fundai's analysis.

a) Operating revenue

The company estimates operating revenue for the whole of fiscal year 1405 at 636,152.7 billion tomans, up 97.6% from the previous fiscal year. Sales in the first 6 months (329,899.8) exceed the company's estimate for the remaining 6 months (306,252.9). Shahrivar alone had sales of 82,377.2 billion tomans; if monthly sales stay near this level, sales for the rest of the year will come in above the company's estimate, and a revision of the estimate in the next report is possible.

b) Cost of goods sold

Production overhead is the largest component of cost of goods sold, and the company estimates it at 222,636.4 billion tomans for the whole year. Total estimated cost of goods sold (246,019.3 billion tomans) is up 81.6% from the previous fiscal year; in the company's estimate, cost growth is slower than revenue growth, and this is what lifts the estimated gross margin.

c) Estimated profit and loss

The company's forecast ends at gross profit and general expenses and does not estimate other income and expenses, finance costs or tax; so the full-year FEMELY earnings per share (estimated EPS) cannot be built from it, and we do not make up a figure for it. Realized trailing twelve-month (TTM) EPS is 2,073 rials. For the calculation method, see What is earnings per share (EPS).

The key point of this table is the price gap: the company assumed a cathode (domestic) price of about 1,026.1 million tomans per tonne for the remaining 6 months, while the latest month's price was 2,382.4 million tomans. If prices stay near their current level, actual revenue and gross profit could come in above the company's estimate; if prices fall, the gap narrows.

d) New forecast versus the previous forecast

The most important change in this version of the FEMELY fundamental analysis is here: with the 6-month report, the company revised its fiscal year 1405 forecast. The table below sets the headline figures of the previous version (published with the 3-month report, 18 Mordad 1405) beside the new version (30 Mehr 1405).

Estimated revenue rose 22.4% and estimated gross profit rose 42.5%. Gross profit grew faster than revenue because the estimated full-year cost of goods sold stayed exactly the same (246,019.3 billion tomans); that is, the extra revenue flowed through to gross profit with no extra cost, and the estimated gross margin went from 52.7% to 61.3%. Selling, administrative and general expenses were also estimated 30.0% higher. But where did this jump come from? The next table shows the 12-month estimate for each product.

The 12-month estimates for the five large items (cathode domestic and export, wire rod domestic, gold and silver concentrate, copper concentrate domestic) are exactly as before. Because the first 6 months sold far more than planned, the remaining share became smaller: the implied cathode (domestic) price for the remaining months fell from 1,754.3 million tomans per tonne (previous version, 9 months remaining) to 1,026.1 (new version, 6 months remaining); the full-year cathode (domestic) volume also rose from 135,494 to 157,224 tonnes. So the jump in the estimate did not come from repricing the main products but from new or higher lines: copper concentrate (export) at 59,901.1 and wire rod (export) at 17,226.4 billion tomans, which were not in the forecast before, molybdenum concentrate, which went from 19,751.4 to 40,181.9, and molybdenum oxide (domestic) and sulfuric acid, which multiplied several times over; molybdenum oxide (export) also dropped out of the forecast. The cautious conclusion is this: the company's estimate for the main products still looks low relative to current prices, and if prices stay near the Shahrivar level, another upward revision in the next report is possible; this is a condition, not a Fundai forecast.

5. FEMELY valuation and comparison with the industry

At a trailing twelve-month P/E of 13.9 times, FEMELY trades at a higher valuation than the basic metals industry as a whole. On 29 Mehr 1405, FEMELY's closing price was 28,900 rials and its market value was 4,161,600 billion tomans. According to the FEMELY financial ratios, its trailing twelve-month (TTM) P/E is 13.9 times, against 11.6 times for the whole industry and 7.6 times for the whole stock market. The company's TTM P/S is 7.6 times (industry 3.2, market 1.7) and its P/B is 9.3 times (industry 5.3, market 3.2). The industry and market figures are the ratio of the whole group's market value to the whole group's earnings or sales, not a simple average of company ratios.

The chart above sets the FEMELY P/E ratio beside the 8 largest basic metals companies by market value that have a P/E. FEMELY's TTM net profit margin is 54.2%, against 27.7% for the industry; the higher margin explains part of the higher P/E. Monthly reports after Shahrivar 1405 are not yet in TTM EPS. FEMELY's PEGY (P/E divided by operating profit growth plus cash yield) is 0.06; a figure below one means the P/E is not high relative to current profit growth, but there is no guarantee that this growth will repeat. We have not calculated a forward P/E, because the company has not forecast the year's net profit. For a comparison with peers, also read the FOULAD fundamental analysis.

6. Investment opportunities and risks in FEMELY

We have listed the opportunities and risks below for FEMELY from the data in this article; each item traces back to one of the figures in the earlier sections and can change with the company's next report.

Opportunities:

• The latest month's cathode (domestic) selling price is above the company's forecast assumption; if this level holds, the year's revenue will come in above the company's estimate.

• Cumulative sales this year are up 225.7% from the same period last year.

• Exports are 21.9% of sales, and foreign-currency revenue benefits the company when the exchange rate rises.

• FEMELY's debt-to-assets ratio is 44.2%, against 54.7% for the industry; the pressure from finance costs is lower than for its peers.

Risks:

• A fall in the exchange rate or in global prices of export products feeds straight into revenue and margin.

• 66.8% of sales are cathode; a drop in the price of or demand for this product feeds directly and quickly into profit.

• The gross margin on cathode (export) fell to 29.4% in the quarter ended Shahrivar 1405, against 70.9% in the Khordad quarter; the 21.9% export share helps profit only if the export margin holds as well.

• At a P/E of 13.9 times, against 11.6 for the industry, the share price is sensitive to continued profit growth.

To follow these variables, see the FEMELY monthly reports and the FEMELY financial ratios on Fundai after each new report.

7. Conclusion of the FEMELY fundamental analysis

The FEMELY fundamental analysis shows that the company's profitability depends more than anything on the price and sales volume of its main products and their profit margins. In the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405, FEMELY's sales grew 225.7% from the same period last year. The gross profit margin in the latest quarter was 71.1%; this is the highest margin for this quarter in the company's history and far above its historical average (51.7%). Based on the company's own forecast, which was raised with the 6-month report, gross profit for fiscal year 1405 will reach 390,133.4 billion tomans and gross profit per share 2,709 rials. The estimated gross profit margin is 61.3%, above 57.9% in the previous fiscal year and above the company's long-term average annual margin (49.6% over 25 years). The stock trades at a P/E of 13.9 times, above the industry (11.6 times). Past performance is no guarantee of the future.

Data sources: FEMELY's monthly activity reports, interim and annual (separate) financial statements and published forecast on Codal through 30 Mehr 1405, and Fundai's trading data and financial ratios through 29 Mehr 1405.

#Iran Mercantile Exchange #Fundamental Analysis #FMELI #National Iranian Copper Industries