SERUD Fundamental Analysis, Mehr 1405: Profit Forecast and Valuation

Fundai Fundamental Analysis Team · October 14, 2026 · 21 min read

Last updated: October 25, 2026, 01:30

This article is updated as new reports come in.

Fundamental analysis of SERUD from monthly sales and export share to profit margin, the company's Codal estimate and P/E versus the cement industry.

Fundamental analysis of SERUD means reviewing the financial and operating position of Shahroud Cement (symbol SERUD) through monthly sales, financial statements, profit margin and valuation ratios. SERUD also publishes consolidated reports, but every figure in this article comes from the standalone financial statements of the parent company on the Codal system. Market data runs to 29 Mehr 1405 and Codal reports to 30 Mehr 1405, and the forecast section only quotes the company's own published estimate.

3 key points in the fundamental analysis of SERUD

1. Introduction to Shahroud Cement and its industry

Shahroud Cement (SERUD) operates in the cement, lime and gypsum group, and its main activity is producing grey cement. According to its standalone financial statements on Codal, SERUD reported operating revenue of 3,976.5 billion tomans and net profit of 1,726.0 billion tomans in the 6 months ending Shahrivar 1405. We examine the makeup of this revenue below using the monthly reports.

SERUD's sales basket has four main products: Type 2 bulk cement and Type 2 bagged cement, each in an export and a domestic version. In the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405, according to Codal monthly reports, Type 2 bulk cement (export) alone made up 34.7% of sales. So a large part of the company's revenue depends on the price and sales volume of this one product.

SERUD trades on the Tehran Stock Exchange and has 9,600 million shares. According to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Technology Management Company (TSETMC) website, its market value reached 21,581 billion tomans on 29 Mehr 1405. The company's fiscal year closes at the end of Esfand.

On the cost side, the largest raw material purchase in the 6 months ending Shahrivar 1405 was slag, at 25.6% of the purchase amount. This input carries the greatest weight in the purchase basket.

The two charts above show the two sides of the company's operations: the sales mix, of which 64.0% is exported, and the raw material purchase mix, where slag and iron ore have the highest amounts. You can also see the revenue and product mix on the SERUD page on Fundai.

2. Monthly reports and SERUD's sales trend

SERUD's sales in the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405 grew 89.1% compared with the same period last year. According to the SERUD monthly reports, the company sold 3,976.5 billion tomans in these 6 months, against 2,102.4 billion tomans in the same period last year. Full-year sales for fiscal year 1404 were 4,209.8 billion tomans; so in the first half of this year the company came close to what it earned in a whole year last year.

Of sales before discounts, 1,430.4 billion tomans (36.0%) went to the domestic market and 2,546.1 billion tomans (64.0%) was exported. The export share in the same period last year was 56.9%, so the weight of the foreign market has grown.

Sales in Shahrivar 1405 reached 512.2 billion tomans; 24.0% less than Mordad (673.8 billion tomans) and 29.7% more than Shahrivar 1404 (394.9 billion tomans). The month-on-month drop should be read alongside the fact that sales in every one of this year's six months were higher than in the same month last year. The charts above compare each month's sales and cumulative sales with last year.

The product table is sorted by share of cumulative sales and compares the Shahrivar 1405 price with Mordad 1405 and Shahrivar 1404. Each product's price is calculated by dividing the month's sales amount by the month's sales volume. The price of Type 2 bulk cement (export) reached 6.3 million tomans per tonne in Shahrivar; 1.6% more than the previous month and 78.3% more than Shahrivar 1404.

This product's cumulative sales volume in the first 6 months was 229,220 tonnes, against 292,489 tonnes in the same period last year; about 21.6% less. So for this product, the sales amount grew through a higher price, not a higher volume.

Part of SERUD's domestic sales is made on the Iran Mercantile Exchange. Each month's trades close before that month's monthly report is published on Codal, so its figures can be read as a preview of the next report. These figures cover only domestic rial trades and do not include export sales, which are most of SERUD's sales; so they should be compared with the "total domestic sales" in the Codal report. In most recent months the two figures have been of similar size: in Dey 1404, domestic rial sales on the Iran Mercantile Exchange were 168.8 billion tomans and total domestic sales in the Codal report were 167.5 billion tomans, and in Shahrivar 1405 they were 247.9 and 266.3 billion tomans respectively. The month-on-month direction was also the same most of the time. The clear exception was Tir 1405, when the Iran Mercantile Exchange showed 149.6 and the Codal report 228.3 billion tomans.

SERUD's domestic rial sales on the Iran Mercantile Exchange in Mehr 1405 (through 28 Mehr, the last trading day) reached 384.4 billion tomans and 92,000 tonnes; in Shahrivar 1405 these two figures were 247.9 billion tomans and 70,195 tonnes, so the amount was 55.1% higher and the volume 31.1% higher. If the pattern of earlier months repeats, "total domestic sales" in the Mehr monthly report on Codal will also rise above Shahrivar's 266.3 billion tomans. This preview concerns domestic sales only; the export share has to be seen in the Mehr report itself.

SERUD alongside the cement, lime and gypsum industry

SERUD's sales growth can be judged only when we put it next to its peers in the same group. "Industry" in this section means the companies in the cement, lime and gypsum industry that filed that month's monthly report and whose sales in the same month last year were positive; in each of the three months, 39 companies out of the 44 in the group. Industry growth means the growth of these companies' combined sales. A large part of the growth that all companies show at the same time comes from the shared effect of prices and the exchange rate; so the meaningful signal is SERUD's gap to the industry, not the growth figure itself.

Tir started well: sales were 660.6 billion tomans, SERUD was the fifth-largest company in the group with 5.1% of industry sales, and its 59.6% growth stayed above industry growth (53.2%) and the median company (57.5%). Mordad was the best month, with 118.0% growth and a rank of 8 of 39, although part of that comes from the small base of Mordad last year (309.1 billion tomans). Even so, SERUD's share that month fell to 4.7% and its sales rank to sixth, because industry sales rose 10.5% from the previous month and SERUD's only 2.0%. Shahrivar reversed the picture: growth of 29.7% against 73.6% for the industry and 85.1% for the median, a rank of 35 of 39, a share of 3.2% and a sales rank of tenth. That is, SERUD's share of industry sales fell from 5.1% to 3.2% over these three months, and its position weakened.

The Shahrivar table shows the gap. All eight of the industry's large companies pulled ahead of SERUD (29.7%) with growth between 46.8% and 177.0%, and SERUD's sales of 512.2 billion tomans were lower even than those of the eighth company in the table (SSESHARGH, 603.1). Month on month, seven of these eight companies' sales rose from Mordad (between 2.0% and 20.0%) and only SETRAN fell, by 2.8%; SERUD's sales fell 24.0% while the industry rose 11.3%. The drop came from exports: SERUD's export sales went from 419.6 billion tomans in Mordad to 245.8 in Shahrivar. This is a single month, and companies' positions shift from one month to the next, but the Mehr monthly report will show whether this lag continues.

3. Analysis of SERUD's financial statements and profit margin

The financial statements of the last five years show that SERUD's revenue and profit have both multiplied several times, while the gross profit margin has stayed between 48.3% and 57.8% along the way. According to the SERUD income statement, annual operating revenue rose from 710.6 billion tomans in fiscal year 1400 to 4,209.8 billion tomans in fiscal year 1404. Net profit over the same period rose from 282.8 to 1,774.5 billion tomans. In fiscal year 1404 revenue grew 76.8% and net profit 135.5%; that is, profit pulled ahead of revenue.

Over the whole five years, operating revenue grew 492.4% and the gross margin always stayed above 48%.

Quarterly and period profit margin

The gross profit margin for the quarter ending Shahrivar 1405 was 48.7%; against 66.0% in the previous quarter, a drop of 17.3 percentage points, and equal to 48.7% in the same quarter last year. The 19-year average for this same quarter is 46.2% and its highest value is 67.6% (year 1387); so this quarter stands slightly above the average and far from its historical ceiling.

The net profit margin for the same quarter was 43.2%; against 43.6% in the previous quarter and 37.2% in the same quarter last year. The 19-year average for this quarter is 30.7% and its highest value is 51.7% (year 1387); so this quarter too is above the average. The net margin stayed roughly in place even though the gross margin fell sharply.

SERUD's latest interim report covers 6 months and counts two quarters together. Compared with the same period last year, the gross margin rose from 55.5% to 58.0% and the net margin from 37.6% to 43.4%. The full trend is in the SERUD profit margin history.

Gross profit margin by product

The gross margin of Type 2 bulk cement (export), the largest revenue item, was 43.0% in the quarter ending Shahrivar 1405; against 82.1% in the previous quarter and 74.9% in the same quarter last year.

The margins of Type 2 bagged cement (domestic), Type 2 bulk cement (domestic) and concrete products (domestic) rose compared with the previous quarter. The margin of Type 2 bagged cement (export) fell from 69.0% to 37.8%. The decline in margin on both export products moves in the same direction as the drop in the company's overall gross margin this quarter.

What changed since the previous report?

In the fundamental analysis of SERUD, the 6-month report (published 30 Mehr 1405) has to be weighed against the 3-month report that the previous version of this article relied on. Over the whole 6-month period net profit reached 1,726.0 billion tomans, 118.1% more than the same period last year (791.3); that is, profit grew faster than revenue (89.1%). The second quarter, Tir to Shahrivar, taken alone, was weaker than the first: revenue went from 2,129.8 to 1,846.6 billion tomans (13.3% lower) while cost of goods sold went from 723.1 to 947.9 (31.1% higher). Gross profit for the quarter fell 36.1% and operating profit 23.2%, but net profit fell only 14.0% (from 928.2 to 797.8), and earnings per share for the quarter went from 967 to 831 rials. The quarter's gross margin went from 66.0% to 48.7%, but the net margin stayed almost constant (43.6% to 43.2%).

From a valuation standpoint, twelve-month earnings per share rose 16.4% and the closing price 8.0%; because profit moved ahead of price, P/E fell from 8.6 to 8.0x, about 7.2% lower. The twelve-month net margin also rose from 43.5% to 44.5%. Among products, the export products made the quarter's weakness, while the margin of Type 2 bagged cement (domestic) rose from 54.8% to 68.4% and that of Type 2 bulk cement (domestic) from 15.1% to 46.9%. The debt-to-assets ratio went from 53.2% to 64.6% and is now above the industry figure (54.9%); before, it was below it. Monthly sales from Farvardin to Shahrivar have not been revised from the previous version. You can see the change in the company's own forecast in the next section, in the comparison of the new and previous forecast.

4. SERUD profit forecast for fiscal year 1405

In its published forecast, the company has estimated SERUD's gross profit for fiscal year 1405 at 4,262.3 billion tomans. This forecast came on Codal together with the 6-month financial statements ending Shahrivar 1405, and its latest version is the letter of 30 Mehr 1405. For the remaining 6 months the company has estimated each product's sales volume and amount, the cost of goods sold and general expenses. The "12-month estimate" column is the sum of actual performance in the first 6 months and the company's estimate for the next 6 months. All these figures are the company's own estimates, not Fundai's analysis.

Estimated operating revenue

The company has estimated full-year operating revenue at 8,085.6 billion tomans; 92.1% more than the previous fiscal year. According to the monthly reports, SERUD sold 3,976.5 billion tomans in the first 6 months, which is 49.2% of the full-year estimate; that is, in half the year, about half of the company's estimate has been realized. The estimate for the remaining 6 months is 4,109.1 billion tomans, or 684.9 billion tomans a month (a simple division by 6). Sales in Shahrivar were 512.2 billion tomans, 25.2% below this average; sales in Mordad (673.8) were closer to it.

Estimated cost of goods sold

Production overhead is the largest component of cost of goods sold, and the company has estimated it at 3,601.7 billion tomans for the full year. Total estimated cost of goods sold is 3,823.2 billion tomans, 103.7% more than the previous fiscal year. In this estimate cost grows faster than revenue (92.1%) and the estimated gross margin becomes 52.7%; in fiscal year 1404 this margin was 55.4%. For the remaining 6 months the estimated gross margin is 47.6%, whereas the first 6 months closed at 58.0%; so the company itself has assumed a lower margin for the second half.

Estimated profit and loss and earnings per share

The company's forecast ends at gross profit and general expenses, and does not include other income and expenses, finance costs or tax. For this reason a full-year estimated earnings per share cannot be built from it, and we give no figure for it. Realized earnings per share for the trailing twelve months (TTM) is 2,822 rials. We have explained how it is calculated in What is earnings per share (EPS).

Gap between the assumed price and the last month's price

The key point in the product table is the price gap: the company has assumed about 8.4 million tomans per tonne for Type 2 bulk cement (export) for the rest of the year, whereas the last month's price was 6.3 million tomans. This time the last month's price is below the assumed price; if it stays at this level, this product's revenue will fall short of the company's estimate.

New forecast versus previous forecast

SERUD has issued two versions of its forecast for fiscal year 1405: one with the 3-month financial statements (letter of 29 Tir 1405) and a new one with the 6-month financial statements (letter of 30 Mehr 1405). In the fundamental analysis of SERUD, comparing the two shows which assumptions the company itself has changed.

The revenue estimate rose 27.7% (from 6,332.1 to 8,085.6 billion tomans), but cost of goods sold was estimated 34.6% higher and selling, general and administrative expenses 45.9% higher; for that reason gross profit rose only 22.0% and the estimated gross margin fell 2.5 percentage points. Two things explain this shift. First, three new months replaced estimate with actual figures: the previous version had assumed 4,202.2 billion tomans of sales for the remaining 9 months, or 466.9 a month, and SERUD sold 1,846.6 billion tomans in Tir to Shahrivar. Second, the monthly assumption for the final 6 months went up: 684.9 billion tomans a month, 46.7% above the previous assumption. The monthly cost assumption also rose 52.5%, and the estimated gross margin for the remaining months went from 49.6% to 47.6%; that is, the company has assumed more sales at a lower margin.

At the product level, the estimated revenue of Type 2 bulk cement (export) fell 6.2%, even though the price assumed for the remaining 6 months went from about 6.1 to 8.4 million tomans per tonne (dividing amount by estimated volume); the full-year estimated volume of this product was cut from 418,994 tonnes to 346,327 tonnes. By contrast, the estimated revenue of Type 2 bagged cement (export) rose 97.6% and that of Type 2 bagged cement (domestic) 56.3%, and these two together account for more than the whole increase in estimated revenue. Type 2 bulk cement (domestic) was estimated 8.5% higher and concrete products (domestic) 9.1% lower, and micronized and spray gypsum (export), at 95.7 billion tomans, dropped out of the new forecast. The company has moved the weight of its export estimate from bulk to bagged and leaned more on higher prices.

The accuracy of this estimate depends on prices. If SERUD sells the estimated 117,107 tonnes of Type 2 bulk cement (export) but the price stays at the Shahrivar level (6.3), this product's revenue in the remaining 6 months would be about 734 billion tomans, which is 253 billion less than the company's estimate of 987.0 billion (a simple product of the estimated volume and the Shahrivar price). For Type 2 bagged cement (export) the same price of 8.4 has been assumed, whereas the Shahrivar price was 5.8. So until export prices move above the Shahrivar level, only higher sales volume or stronger domestic sales can close the gap with the company's estimate. The Mehr and Aban monthly reports will show whether the price is moving toward the company's assumption.

5. Valuation of SERUD and comparison with the industry

SERUD trades at a twelve-month P/E of 8.0x, lower than the figure for the whole cement, lime and gypsum industry. On 29 Mehr 1405 its closing price was 22,480 rials and its market value was 21,581 billion tomans. That is, the market was paying 8.0 rials for every rial of profit over the past twelve months.

According to the SERUD financial ratios, the trailing twelve-month (TTM) P/E of the whole industry is 9.1x and of the whole stock market 7.2x. The company's TTM P/S is 3.5x (industry 4.4, market 1.7) and its P/B is 6.8x (industry 8.1, market 3.2). The industry and market figures are the ratio of the whole group's market value to the whole group's profit or sales, not a simple average of company ratios.

The chart places SERUD next to the eight largest companies of this group by market value; in this set only SBAGHER and SESUFI have a lower P/E. SERUD's P/B is also below the industry's. Its twelve-month return on equity (ROE) is 85.6% against 89.9% for the industry; so alongside the lower P/B there is also a lower return on equity, although the gap with the industry has narrowed since the 3-month report (59.7% versus 87.2%).

SERUD's TTM net profit margin is 44.5%, against 48.7% for the industry. Monthly reports after Shahrivar 1405 are not yet in TTM EPS. We have not calculated a forward P/E, because the company's published estimate on Codal stops at gross profit and general expenses and does not reach the year's net profit.

6. Investment opportunities and risks in SERUD

In the data of this article, a few strengths and a few risks stand out more clearly than the rest: sales growth, profitability and the export share on one side, and cost growth, the exchange rate and debt on the other. Each item traces back to one of the figures in the earlier sections and can change with the company's next report.

Opportunities:

The 6-month net profit margin has risen from 37.6% to 43.4%; net profit grew 118.1% and moved ahead of revenue growth (89.1%).

This year's cumulative sales are nearly double the same period last year. In 6 months the company has come close to what it earned in a whole year last year.

The high export share means a large part of revenue depends on foreign currency, and the exchange rate has a direct effect on this segment's rial revenue.

SERUD's twelve-month P/E (8.0x) is below the whole-industry figure (9.1x), and its P/B (6.8x) is also lower than the industry's (8.1x).

Risks:

Export revenue depends on the exchange rate and the global price of the product. This segment has the largest share of sales, so the greatest sensitivity lies here too.

The company has estimated the year's cost of goods sold 103.7% above last year, while its estimated revenue grows 92.1%. In the company's own estimate the year's gross margin reaches 52.7% (55.4% last year) and for the remaining 6 months it is 47.6%. The gross margin of the latest quarter also fell from 66.0% to 48.7%.

The last month's price of Type 2 bulk cement (export) (6.3 million tomans per tonne) is below the company's assumption for the remaining 6 months (8.4); if the price does not rise, the year's revenue estimate is exposed to a cut. Sales in Shahrivar were also 24.0% below Mordad, and its 29.7% growth lagged industry growth (73.6%).

SERUD's debt-to-assets ratio rose from 53.2% to 64.6% with the 6-month report and is above the 54.9% for the whole industry; higher interest rates put pressure on profit.

To follow these variables, check the SERUD monthly reports and the SERUD balance sheet after each new report.

7. Summary of the fundamental analysis of SERUD

The fundamental analysis of SERUD shows that Shahroud Cement's profitability depends above all on the price and sales volume of its main products and on their profit margins. This year's sales growth has come more from higher prices than from volume, and the export share is higher than last year; so the company's revenue has moved closer to the foreign exchange market and global prices.

The gross profit margin of the latest quarter (48.7%) is slightly above the long-run average for the same quarter (46.2%), but far from the previous quarter's 66.0% and from the historical ceiling for that quarter (67.6%). So the price and margin of the bulk export product in the coming quarters is the most important test of whether profitability can be sustained.

In its new forecast (30 Mehr 1405), the company estimated the year's revenue 27.7% and gross profit 22.0% above the 29 Tir version, but raised cost of goods sold faster (34.6%), and the estimated gross margin fell 2.5 percentage points. This forecast still goes only as far as gross profit and general expenses. The price assumed for bulk exports is above the last month's price, and Shahrivar sales fell behind the monthly average implied by the estimate for the rest of the year; later reports will show whether this gap closes.

On valuation, the stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios are below the whole-industry figure, but its relative debt has risen above the industry figure with the 6-month report and its return on equity is also slightly below the industry's. A past figure does not guarantee the future; this picture should be re-measured with each new monthly and interim report.

Data sources: SERUD's monthly activity reports, standalone interim and annual financial statements and published forecast on Codal, and Fundai's trading data and financial ratios as of 29 Mehr 1405 (Codal reports through 30 Mehr 1405).

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