SHASPA Fundamental Analysis, Mehr 1405: Profit Forecast and Valuation

Fundai Fundamental Analysis Team · October 16, 2026 · 17 min read

Last updated: October 25, 2026, 01:29

This article is updated as new reports come in.

SHASPA's fundamental analysis, using monthly report data, profit margins and the company's own Codal estimate, shows that Naft Sepahan's sales jump came more from the base oil price than from volume.

In this article, the fundamental analysis of SHASPA looks at the fundamental position of Naft Sepahan, which trades under the symbol SHASPA. SHASPA also publishes consolidated statements, but every figure in this article comes from the parent company's separate financial statements. Using the monthly reports published on the Codal system, we assess revenue and profitability, the profit margin, the factors that will shape future performance and the company's valuation ratios. Finally, based on the financial information published up to 30 Mehr 1405, we review the profit outlook and the main opportunities and risks of this symbol.

3 key points in the fundamental analysis of SHASPA

1. Introducing Naft Sepahan and its industry

Naft Sepahan (SHASPA) is one of the companies in the engine oil producers group and earns its revenue from selling base oil, process oils, engine oil and paraffin in the domestic and export markets.

The company's sales basket consists of base oil, process oils, gasoline engine oil, diesel engine oil, paraffin and industrial oils. In the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405, base oil alone made up 54.5% of sales value; so the company's profitability depends, more than on anything else, on the price and volume of sales of this one product.

SHASPA trades on the Tehran Stock Exchange main market and has 56 billion shares. According to the Codal system, the company's nominal capital is 5,600 billion tomans, divided into 56 billion shares. Its market value on 29 Mehr 1405 reached 163,968 billion tomans. The company's fiscal year closes at the end of Esfand, so the 6-month Shahrivar report covers the first half of fiscal year 1405.

On the cost side, Lubcut was the largest raw material purchase item in the 6 months ending Shahrivar 1405, at 73.1% of purchase value. The price of this input affects cost of goods sold more than any other, and the gap between the price of the base oil sold and the price of the Lubcut bought determines how much margin the company makes.

You can see the revenue and product mix on the Naft Sepahan page. To gauge the company's standing within its group, in the valuation section of this article we have set SHASPA's ratios next to those of peer companies and the industry-wide figure. Before that, it is worth knowing which product the company's revenue comes from and which input its costs depend on most; the sections that follow are built on these two points.

2. Monthly reports and SHASPA's sales trend

SHASPA's sales in the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405 exceeded its sales for the whole of the previous fiscal year. According to SHASPA's monthly reports, the company sold 44,953.7 billion tomans in these 6 months; 210.1% growth over the same period last year (14,496.7 billion tomans). Sales for the whole of the previous fiscal year were 38,633.4 billion tomans, meaning the company passed last year's full-year figure in the first half of this year.

Of this amount, 19,278.1 billion tomans (42.9%) came from the domestic market and 25,675.6 billion tomans (57.1%) from exports. In the same period last year the export share was 54.0%; so exports have gained slightly more weight in the sales basket.

Sales in Shahrivar 1405 reached 13,306.5 billion tomans; 87.3% growth over Mordad 1405 (7,104.7 billion tomans) and 392.0% growth over Shahrivar 1404 (2,704.7 billion tomans). All six months this year were higher than the same month last year, so the jump is not limited to one month. The chart below compares each month's sales with the same month last year.

The table below sorts the products by their share of cumulative sales over the first 6 months and compares the Shahrivar 1405 selling price with Mordad 1405 and Shahrivar 1404. The price is obtained by dividing the month's sales value by that month's sales volume.

The export base oil price in Shahrivar 1405 reached 178.1 million tomans per tonne; 37.0% above the previous month and 187.6% above Shahrivar 1404. The cumulative sales volume of the same product was 162,491 tonnes, against 89,485 tonnes in the same period last year. So the growth in export base oil sales came from both volume and price.

The price column in the table above is in million tomans per tonne and is obtained by dividing each product's sales value by that product's sales volume in the same month.

SHASPA alongside the petroleum products, coke and nuclear fuel industry

To see how much of SHASPA's sales growth is down to the company itself, we have set its monthly sales next to the petroleum products, coke and nuclear fuel industry. "Industry" in this section means the 11 companies in this industry that filed the monthly report for that month and had positive sales in the same month last year; industry growth is the growth in the total sales of those same companies. SHASPA is a small company among them: its monthly sales rank was eighth in Tir and Mordad and seventh in Shahrivar, and its share of industry sales went from 1.6% in Tir to 1.2% in Mordad and back to 1.9% in Shahrivar.

In Tir and Mordad, SHASPA's sales growth lagged the whole industry (134.8% and 119.2% against 146.7% and 194.4%), but in Shahrivar the picture turned around: SHASPA's sales grew 392.0%, against 251.6% for the whole industry and 217.6% for the median company, and its growth rank went from eighth in Mordad to first. It should be kept in mind that a large part of the industry-wide growth is the effect of prices and the exchange rate, which lifted all companies; the meaningful signal for SHASPA is its gap to the industry, and that gap has turned positive in only one month.

Among the eight largest companies in the industry by Shahrivar sales, SHASPA had the highest growth over the same month last year, but its sales (13,306.5 billion tomans) were about one-twentieth of those of SHAPNA, the largest company in the industry. Over Mordad, too, SHASPA's sales rose 87.3% and the whole industry's 23.7%; whether the Shahrivar jump continues or was a one-off will become clear in the Mehr monthly report.

Part of SHASPA's domestic sales is made on the SHASPA commodity exchange page, and because each month's trades close before that month's monthly report appears on Codal, they give a preview of the next report. This preview does not show the size of the report, because rial-denominated domestic sales on the Iran Mercantile Exchange are only one part of the company's domestic sales. In Shahrivar 1405 this figure was 1,295.3 billion tomans against Codal-reported domestic sales of 4,397.2 billion tomans; that is, 29.5%. This share reached 36.7% in Farvardin 1405, with 592.5 against 1,613.7 billion tomans, and fell to 13.7% in Khordad 1405, with 475.1 against 3,456.9 billion tomans. The direction of the two series is not always the same, either: in Shahrivar the Mercantile Exchange figure rose 83.4% over Mordad (1,295.3 against 706.4 billion tomans) and Codal domestic sales rose 27.0% (4,397.2 against 3,461.2 billion tomans), but in Khordad and Mordad the Mercantile Exchange figure fell while Codal domestic sales rose.

SHASPA's rial-denominated domestic sales on the Iran Mercantile Exchange in Mehr 1405, up to 27 Mehr, the last trading day, reached 1,671.0 billion tomans; 29.0% more than in Shahrivar (1,295.3 billion tomans). The volume of these trades was 7,560 tonnes, against 8,005 tonnes in Shahrivar, which is 5.6% lower; so the rise in value came from price, not volume. If the pattern of earlier months repeats, the Mercantile Exchange part of Mehr domestic sales will appear higher than Shahrivar's in the Codal report, but the size of total sales will become clear from the Mehr report.

3. Analysis of SHASPA's financial statements and profit margin

SHASPA's financial statements for the last 5 years show that the company's revenue and profit have multiplied and that the gross profit margin has also risen. According to SHASPA's separate income statement, which is audited, operating revenue rose from 13,197.7 billion tomans in fiscal year 1400 to 38,633.4 billion tomans in 1404. Net profit over the same period rose from 3,426.0 to 16,944.5 billion tomans. In 1404 revenue grew 27.7% and net profit 217.7%.

Net profit for 1404 exceeded gross profit because 9,419.0 billion tomans of other income was recorded in the income statement.

Over these 5 years operating revenue grew 192.7% and cost of goods sold 171.6%; that is, sales pulled ahead of costs.

Quarterly and period profit margins

The gross profit margin for the quarter ending Shahrivar 1405 reached 35.8%; it was 37.2% in the previous quarter and 23.7% in the same quarter last year. The 13-year average for this same quarter is 28.1%; this year's figure stands well above that average, although it is below the highest margin for this quarter (48.7% in 1397).

The net profit margin for the same three months was 47.6%, against 25.0% in the previous quarter and 26.3% in the same quarter last year. The highest net margin for this quarter was 48.6% (in 1397) and the lowest 7.7% (in 1394), and the 13-year average is 24.8%; this year's figure has almost reached the ceiling of this quarter's history.

SHASPA's latest interim report is the 6-month one, and the period comparison is made with the same period last year: the 6-month gross profit margin rose from 23.0% to 36.3% and the net margin from 19.8% to 39.0%. The full trend is in SHASPA's profit margin history.

Gross profit margin by product

The gross margin of export base oil, the largest revenue item, was 41.6% in the quarter ending Shahrivar 1405; it was 36.4% in the previous quarter and 29.8% in the same quarter last year. Compared with the previous quarter, the margins of gasoline engine oil and base oil (both domestic) rose, and the margins of domestic process oils, domestic diesel engine oil and export process oils fell.

What changed since the previous report?

The 6-month Shahrivar report sharpened the profitability picture in the fundamental analysis of SHASPA. Six-month sales reached 44,953.7 billion tomans and net profit 17,519.4 billion tomans; in the same period last year net profit was 2,871.3 billion tomans. The Shahrivar quarter alone had revenue of 27,825.5 billion tomans and net profit of 13,243.5 billion tomans; 62.5% more revenue and 209.7% more net profit than the Khordad quarter. Earnings per share for this quarter were 2,365 rials, against 764 rials in the previous quarter. The gross margin did slip a little, from 37.2% to 35.8%; the profit jump came from elsewhere: the quarter's operating profit (14,146.3 billion tomans) is larger than gross profit (9,952.9 billion tomans), meaning other operating income made a large contribution to this quarter's profit.

The fall in P/E from 7.5 to 5.2 times came from profit growth, not from the stock getting cheaper: the price rose 5.9% and twelve-month EPS 52.3%. Among the products, the margin of export base oil reached 41.6% in the Shahrivar quarter, from 36.4% in the previous quarter. On the other hand, the debt-to-assets ratio rose from 41.8% to 49.5% and is now above the industry's 39.4%. The full-year forecast is still the 30 Tir version; the forecast figures that came with the 6-month report, which we described in section 4, will be added to this analysis once they have been read.

4. SHASPA's profit forecast for fiscal year 1405

According to the company's own forecast, SHASPA's gross profit in fiscal year 1405 will reach 19,031.3 billion tomans. This estimate was published on Codal with the 3-month financial statements ending Khordad 1405, and the date of its letter is 30 Tir 1405. For the remaining 9 months the company has estimated the sales volume and value of each product, cost of goods sold and general expenses. The "12-month estimate" column is the sum of actual performance in the first 3 months and the estimate for the next 9. All of these figures are the company's own estimates. SHASPA also published a forecast with the 6-month financial statements (letter of 30 Mehr 1405), but its figures have not yet been read into Fundai's data; until then this section relies on the 30 Tir version.

Estimated operating revenue

The company has estimated operating revenue for the whole of fiscal year 1405 at 77,063.7 billion tomans; 99.5% growth over the previous fiscal year. The monthly reports show that SHASPA sold 27,825.5 billion tomans from Tir to Shahrivar; that is, 46.4% of the company's 9-month estimate (59,935.5 billion tomans) was realized in the first 3 of those months. If sales continue at this pace, actual revenue will exceed the company's estimate and the estimate may be revised in the next report.

Estimated cost of goods sold

Direct materials consumed are the largest component of cost of goods sold, and the company has estimated them at 53,388.7 billion tomans for the whole year. Total estimated cost of goods sold (58,032.4 billion tomans) is 121.7% higher than in the previous fiscal year. In this estimate cost grows faster than revenue (99.5%), and this is what brings the estimated gross profit margin to 24.7%.

Estimated income statement and earnings per share

The company's forecast ends at gross profit and general expenses. Other income and expenses, finance costs and tax are not estimated in it; so full-year 1405 earnings per share cannot be derived from this forecast. Realized trailing twelve-month (TTM) earnings per share are 5,642 rials. The method for calculating this ratio is covered in What is earnings per share (EPS) and how is it calculated?.

In the company's estimate, the export base oil price for the rest of the year is about 115.4 million tomans per tonne, whereas the latest month's price was 178.1 million tomans. Any change in this product's price has a direct effect on estimated revenue, because export base oil is the largest line in the company's estimated sales.

5. Valuation of the SHASPA symbol and comparison with the industry

SHASPA trades at a twelve-month P/E above the whole-industry figure and below the whole-market figure. On 29 Mehr 1405 the symbol's closing price was 29,280 rials and its market value was 163,968 billion tomans.

According to SHASPA's financial ratios, the company's price-to-trailing-twelve-month-earnings ratio (TTM) is 5.2 times; against 4.0 times for the whole industry and 6.8 times for the whole market. That is, the market pays slightly more than the industry for each rial of SHASPA's last twelve months of profit. The company's TTM price-to-sales ratio (P/S) is 2.4 times (industry 0.7, market 1.6) and its price-to-book ratio (P/B) is 5.1 times (industry 3.1, market 3.2). The industry and market figures are the ratio of the whole group's market value to the whole group's profit or sales, not a simple average of the companies' ratios.

The chart above sets SHASPA's P/E next to the 8 largest companies in the engine oil producers group by market value that have a P/E. SHASPA stands in the higher part of the ratios among them, but with a net profit margin of 45.7% against 16.1% for the industry. The higher margin explains part of the higher P/E; the P/S above the industry also comes from this margin gap, because each rial of SHASPA's sales carries more profit than the group average.

Monthly reports after Shahrivar 1405 are not yet in TTM EPS, but the summer quarter's profit, that is, the Tir to Shahrivar sales jump, is now reflected in this P/E. We have not calculated a forward P/E, because the company has not estimated the year's net profit.

6. What are the opportunities and risks of investing in SHASPA?

The data in this article shows four opportunities and four risks for SHASPA. Each item goes back to a figure in the earlier sections and may change with the company's next report.

Opportunities: The latest month's price for export base oil is above the company's assumption for the rest of the year. If this level holds, the year's revenue will exceed the company's estimate. Cumulative sales this year grew 210.1% over the same period last year, and 57.1% of that is exports; so the company's foreign-currency revenue benefits from a rise in the exchange rate. The gross profit margin of the latest quarter also stands above this quarter's historical average.

Risks: A fall in the exchange rate or in global prices of the export products feeds directly into revenue and margin. 54.5% of sales rests on base oil; a drop in the price of or demand for this one product would quickly hit profit. SHASPA's debt-to-assets ratio is 49.5%, against 39.4% for the whole industry, and with rising interest rates finance costs press on profit. The company has estimated that the year's cost of goods sold will grow 121.7%, faster than the 99.5% growth in revenue; if actual costs follow this path, the margin will fall.

To follow these variables, after each new report go to SHASPA's monthly reports and SHASPA's financial ratios.

7. Summary of the fundamental analysis of SHASPA

The fundamental analysis of SHASPA shows that the company's profitability depends, more than on anything else, on the price and volume of sales of its main products and on their profit margins. In the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405, SHASPA recorded 210.1% sales growth over the same period last year; sales that also passed the previous fiscal year's full-year figure.

The gross profit margin of the latest quarter (35.8%) is above this quarter's historical average (28.1%), although it has not reached its ceiling of 48.7%. That is, today's margin has risen above the company's usual level, and the risk of a return to the earlier level should be weighed alongside it.

On Codal, in its letter of 30 Tir 1405, the company estimated gross profit for fiscal year 1405 at 19,031.3 billion tomans, with estimated gross profit per share of 3,398 rials. The gross margin of this estimate is 24.7%; lower than the previous fiscal year and than the company's long-run average annual margin (28.7% over 18 years). So the company's estimate assumes a more cautious margin than recent performance.

On valuation, SHASPA's trailing twelve-month P/E stands above the whole-industry figure and below the whole market. The comparison describes only today's position, and past performance does not guarantee the future.

Data sources: SHASPA's monthly activity reports, separate interim and annual financial statements and published forecast on Codal up to 30 Mehr 1405, and Fundai's trading data and financial ratios up to 29 Mehr 1405. To review these same numbers, open Naft Sepahan's financial ratios and Naft Sepahan's monthly reports side by side.

#Iran Mercantile Exchange #Fundamental Analysis #Base Oil #Earnings Per Share #SHESPA #Sepahan Oil #Monthly Report