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DABID Fundamental Analysis, Mehr 1405: Profit Forecast and Valuation

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This article is updated as new reports come in.

DABID fundamental analysis: a step-by-step guide to reviewing monthly sales, cost of sales and the financial statements of Dr. Abidi Pharmaceutical Laboratories

Fundamental analysis of DABID, from the sales mix and profit margins to the company's own estimate published on Codal and a valuation comparison with the pharmaceutical industry.

In this article, our fundamental analysis of DABID looks at the fundamental position of Dr. Abidi Pharmaceutical Laboratories, which trades under the symbol DABID. DABID also publishes consolidated statements, but every figure in this article comes from the standalone financial statements of the parent company. Using the monthly reports published on the Codal system, we assess the trend in revenue and profitability, the state of profit margins, the factors that will shape future performance, and the company's valuation ratios. Finally, based on the financial information published up to 30 Mehr 1405, we review the profit outlook and the most important opportunities and risks of this symbol.

3 key points in the fundamental analysis of DABID

Fundamental profile of DABID (standalone financial statements, prices as of 29 Mehr 1405)
IndicatorInformation
Company name and symbolDr. Abidi Pharmaceutical Laboratories (DABID)
IndustryPharmaceutical materials and products, Tehran Stock Exchange
Fiscal yearEnding at the end of Azar
Latest operating revenue24,331.4 billion tomans, 9 months ending Shahrivar 1405
Latest net profit8,925.8 billion tomans, 9 months ending Shahrivar 1405
Realized EPS (earnings per share)1,594 rials in the 9 months ending Shahrivar 1405; 2,006 rials over the trailing twelve months (TTM)
Company's own estimated gross EPS3,728 rials for fiscal year 1405; the company's estimated gross profit (20,878.4 billion tomans) divided by 56 billion shares
Trailing P/E (TTM)13.8x on 29 Mehr 1405
Forward P/ENot available

1. Introduction to Dr. Abidi Pharmaceutical Laboratories and its industry

Dr. Abidi Pharmaceutical Laboratories (DABID) operates in the pharmaceutical materials and products group, and its revenue comes from selling tablets, capsules, syrups and suspensions in the domestic market. Among the peers compared on Fundai, it has the largest market value.

DABID sales mix, 9 months ending Shahrivar 1405 (sales amount, billion tomans)
ItemSales amount (billion tomans)
Tablets17,318.3
Capsules4,145.2
Syrups and suspensions527.8
Other6,373.9
DABID raw material purchase mix, 9 months ending Shahrivar 1405 (purchase amount, billion tomans)
ItemPurchase amount (billion tomans)
Raw materials17,462.7

Tablets are the main pillar of sales: in the first 9 months of fiscal year 1405, 61.1% of domestic sales before discounts came from this product. So the company's profitability is tied, more than anything else, to the price and sales volume of tablets. The "Other" group comes next with a share close to one quarter. In the Codal monthly reports, DABID's export sales for this period are recorded as zero.

DABID trades on the Tehran Stock Exchange. According to the interim financial statement filed on Codal, the company's registered capital is 56,000 billion rials, divided into 56 billion shares. Based on TSETMC data, its market value on 29 Mehr 1405 reached 154,728 billion tomans.

On the cost side, the company recorded its raw material purchases for the 9 months ending Shahrivar 1405 as a single lump item: 17,462.7 billion tomans. For this reason, the monthly report cannot tell us which input accounts for a larger share of this amount.

You can also see the sales mix and the raw material purchases on the DABID page on Fundai.

2. DABID monthly reports and sales trend

DABID's sales for the first 9 months of fiscal year 1405 exceeded its sales for the whole of the previous fiscal year. According to the DABID monthly reports, the company sold 24,331.4 billion tomans in this period; 153.7% growth on the same period last year (9,589.6 billion tomans). Sales for the whole of the previous fiscal year were 14,417.9 billion tomans, which means the company is already ahead of a full year's figure after 9 months. All of these sales were recorded in the domestic market.

DABID monthly sales in the first 9 months of the fiscal year, 1404 and 1405 (billion tomans)
Month1404 sales (billion tomans)1405 sales (billion tomans)
Dey1,118.01,645.1
Bahman854.81,963.6
Esfand1,031.81,728.0
Farvardin794.61,718.2
Ordibehesht1,108.73,006.9
Khordad1,163.63,179.5
Tir1,053.62,296.7
Mordad1,219.93,231.7
Shahrivar1,244.75,561.8
DABID cumulative sales from the start of the fiscal year, 1404 versus 1405 (billion tomans)
Through the end of1404 cumulative sales (billion tomans)1405 cumulative sales (billion tomans)
Dey1,118.01,645.1
Bahman1,972.83,608.7
Esfand3,004.65,336.6
Farvardin3,799.27,054.8
Ordibehesht4,907.910,061.7
Khordad6,071.513,241.2
Tir7,125.015,537.9
Mordad8,344.918,769.6
Shahrivar9,589.624,331.4
Share of each DABID product in sales for the first 9 months of fiscal year 1405, and monthly selling price (price in thousand tomans per unit)
ProductCumulative sales (billion tomans)Share of salesPrice in Shahrivar 1405Price in Mordad 1405Price in Shahrivar 1404
Tablets (domestic)17,318.361.1%596.0552.7277.0
Other (domestic)6,373.922.5%3,311.41,563.170.2
Capsules (domestic)4,145.214.6%748.7749.5355.1
Syrups and suspensions (domestic)527.81.9%102.2112.435.7

This sales figure is net, that is, after deducting 4,033.8 billion tomans of discounts and returns. The product shares below are calculated on sales before discounts (28,365.1 billion tomans). The weight of discounts has also risen: in Shahrivar 1405 discounts were 1,383.8 billion tomans, or 19.9% of that month's sales before discounts, against 16.1% in Tir.

Sales in Shahrivar 1405 reached 5,561.8 billion tomans; 72.1% more than in Mordad 1405 (3,231.7 billion tomans) and 346.8% more than in Shahrivar 1404 (1,244.7 billion tomans). All 9 months of this year were higher than the same month last year, so this jump is not confined to a single month. The chart above compares each month's sales with the same month last year.

The table above ranks the products by their share of cumulative sales and compares the Shahrivar price with Mordad and with Shahrivar 1404. The price is obtained by dividing the month's sales amount by the same month's sales volume. The price of tablets (domestic) in Shahrivar 1405 reached 596.0 thousand tomans per 100 units; 7.8% higher than the previous month and 115.2% higher than Shahrivar 1404. Cumulative tablet sales volume was 38,305,408 hundred-unit packs, against 34,849,619 hundred-unit packs in the same period last year; so the growth in tablet sales value came more from price than from volume.

DABID alongside the pharmaceutical materials and products industry

To see how much of DABID's growth is due to the company itself, we measured its monthly sales against its own industry. "Industry" in this section means the companies of the pharmaceutical materials and products industry that filed the monthly report for the same month and whose sales in the same month last year were positive (44 companies in each of the three months Tir to Shahrivar 1405); industry growth is the growth of the total sales of these same companies. DABID had the fifth-largest sales in the industry in Tir and the fourth-largest in Mordad and Shahrivar, and its share of industry sales rose from 5.1% to 6.2% and then 8.8%; that is, its position in the industry has been getting stronger month by month.

DABID monthly sales growth against the pharmaceutical materials and products industry, versus the same month last year
MonthDABID sales growthTotal industry sales growthMedian growth of industry companiesDABID growth rank in the industryDABID share of industry sales
Tir 1405118.0%148.8%170.2%30 of 445.1%
Mordad 1405164.9%180.6%188.2%25 of 446.2%
Shahrivar 1405346.8%202.1%197.1%9 of 448.8%

However, DABID's own growth lagged the industry in the first two months. In Tir it grew 118.0% against 148.8% for the whole industry and 170.2% for the median company, and its growth rank was 30 of 44; in Mordad it grew 164.9% against 180.6% and 188.2%, ranking 25. Only in Shahrivar did the picture turn: 346.8% against 202.1% for the whole industry and 197.1% for the median, ranking 9 of 44. Month on month, DABID's sales rose 40.7% in Mordad and 72.1% in Shahrivar, against 14.8% and 20.9% for the whole industry. One point should not be overlooked: the median company growth in these three months was between 170.2% and 197.1%, which means a large part of industry growth comes from the effect of prices and the exchange rate, which lifted all companies. So the meaningful signal is not the growth figure itself but the gap with the industry; and this gap was negative in the first two months and turned positive only in Shahrivar, so one strong month is not yet an established trend.

Shahrivar 1405 sales of the eight largest pharmaceutical materials and products companies by that month's sales, and their growth
SymbolShahrivar 1405 sales (billion tomans)Growth versus the same month last yearGrowth versus the previous month
DETOZI11,653.5210.6%43.1%
HEJRAT8,028.1229.0%21.2%
PAKHSH8,018.184.7%9.7%
DABID5,561.8346.8%72.1%
DARAZI3,084.8207.6%0.6%
DARU3,000.0354.4%20.0%
DEZAGROS2,229.4417.1%106.1%
DEDANA2,052.5268.5%10.0%

In Shahrivar, the three companies larger than DABID were DETOZI (11,653.5 billion tomans), HEJRAT (8,028.1) and PAKHSH (8,018.1), while DABID's sales were 5,561.8 billion tomans. Among the eight largest companies, only DARU (354.4%) and DEZAGROS (417.1%, on a smaller base) grew faster than DABID; DETOZI grew 210.6%, HEJRAT 229.0% and PAKHSH 84.7%. So DABID grew faster than all three companies larger than itself, but its sales are still 2,456.3 billion tomans below PAKHSH, the third-largest company.

3. DABID financial statements and profit margin analysis

The income statements of the last 5 fiscal years show that DABID's revenue and net profit have multiplied, but its gross profit margin has hardly moved. According to the DABID income statement, annual operating revenue rose from 2,355.9 billion tomans in fiscal year 1400 to 14,417.9 billion tomans in fiscal year 1404. Net profit also rose over the same period, from 686.1 to 4,746.5 billion tomans. In fiscal year 1404, revenue grew 67.8% and net profit 143.4%.

DABID annual operating revenue, gross profit, operating profit and net profit over the last 5 fiscal years (billion tomans)
Fiscal yearOperating revenueGross profitOperating profitNet profit
14002,355.91,408.41,045.0686.1
14014,402.12,740.62,123.61,508.5
14026,635.14,138.83,154.72,116.3
14038,593.34,769.43,349.31,950.3
140414,417.98,418.85,887.24,746.5
DABID annual gross and net profit margins over the last 5 fiscal years (percent)
Fiscal yearGross profit margin (percent)Net profit margin (percent)
140059.829.1
140162.334.3
140262.431.9
140355.522.7
140458.432.9
DABID quarterly gross and net profit margins (each quarter on its own, percent)
Quarter endingGross profit margin (percent)Net profit margin (percent)
Azar 140353.535.2
Esfand 140357.624.8
Khordad 140462.027.7
Shahrivar 140456.124.0
Azar 140458.247.8
Esfand 140459.139.4
Khordad 140564.540.0
Shahrivar 140560.333.0
DABID financial performance in the 9 months ending Shahrivar 1405 and the equivalent period last year (billion tomans)
IndicatorSame period last year9 months ending Shahrivar 1405Change
Operating revenue9,589.624,331.4+153.7%
Gross profit5,607.814,944.3+166.5%
Operating profit4,030.011,963.4+196.9%
Net profit2,439.58,925.8+265.9%
Net profit margin (change in percentage points)25.4%36.7%+11.3
DABID product gross profit margins in the quarter ending Shahrivar 1405, in order of share of revenue
ProductShare of quarterly revenueQuarterly gross marginPeriod gross marginMargin in the same quarter last yearHistorical average
Tablets (domestic)61.6%65.9%65.9%58.8%64.7%
Other (domestic)22.3%53.6%55.1%61.2%45.6%
Capsules (domestic)14.2%55.7%55.4%50.6%49.0%
Syrups and suspensions (domestic)1.9%54.0%34.9%6.2%25.4%

Over these 5 years the annual gross profit margin stayed between 55.5% and 62.4%. Over this period operating revenue rose 512.0% and cost of sales rose 533.2%; that is, costs pulled slightly ahead of sales, and the margin went from 59.8% in 1400 to 58.4% in 1404.

Quarterly and period profit margins

The gross profit margin for the quarter ending Shahrivar 1405 reached 60.3%; in the previous quarter it was 64.5% and in the same quarter last year 56.1%. In the history of this same quarter, the highest gross margin was 65.7% (1401) and the lowest 28.7% (1389), and the 17-year average is 53.3%. So the margin fell 4.2 percentage points from the previous quarter and is no longer near its historical peak (it is 5.4 points away), but it still stands 7.0 points above the average.

The net profit margin for the same quarter was 33.0%, against 40.0% in the previous quarter and 24.0% in the same quarter last year. The highest net margin in the history of this quarter is 33.9% (1399) and the lowest 0.0% (1390); the 16-year average is 19.6%. So the Shahrivar quarter is still one of the strongest quarters in the history, it has only come down from the peak that the Khordad quarter had built.

DABID's latest interim report covers 9 months and is compared only with the same period last year. The 9-month gross margin rose from 58.5% to 61.4% and the net margin from 25.4% to 36.7%. The longer-term trend is given in the DABID profit margin history.

Product gross profit margins

The gross margin of tablets (domestic), the largest revenue item, was 65.9% in the quarter ending Shahrivar 1405; against 69.0% in the previous quarter and 58.8% in the same quarter last year. The margin of syrups and suspensions (domestic) rose from the previous quarter (from 42.6% to 54.0%), while the margins of capsules (domestic) and other (domestic) fell.

What changed since the previous report?

The Shahrivar 9-month report moved several key indicators in the fundamental analysis of DABID. The Shahrivar quarter alone had 11,090.2 billion tomans of revenue and 3,661.4 billion tomans of net profit; compared with the Khordad quarter (7,904.6 and 3,163.7), revenue was 40.3% higher and net profit 15.7% higher, and earnings per share for this quarter rose from 565 to 654 rials. Profit lagged sales, because the gross margin went from 64.5% to 60.3% and the net margin from 40.0% to 33.0%; more was sold at a lower margin. Over the whole 9 months, net profit was 8,925.8 billion tomans, 265.9% more than the same period last year. The table below compares the main indicators with the previous version of this analysis; the comparison of the company's two forecasts is in section 4.

DABID before and after the 9-month report: the main indicators in the previous version of this analysis (6-month report, price of 26 Mehr 1405) and now (9-month report, price of 29 Mehr 1405)
IndicatorPrevious versionNowChange
Trailing twelve-month EPS (TTM, rials)1,5032,006+33.5%
Closing price (rials)25,96027,630+6.4%
Twelve-month P/E (x)17.313.83.5 points lower
P/E of the whole pharmaceutical materials and products industry (x)12.39.42.9 points lower
TTM net profit margin39.0%38.5%−0.5
Gross profit margin of the latest quarter64.5% (Khordad 1405)60.3% (Shahrivar 1405)−4.2
Debt-to-assets ratio58.8%61.4%+2.6
Estimated gross profit for 1405 (billion tomans)22,000.020,878.4−5.1%

The fall in P/E from 17.3 to 13.8 is less a sign that the stock became cheaper than the result of earnings catching up with the price: the price rose 6.4%, but twelve-month EPS grew 33.5%, from 1,503 to 2,006 rials, and the result is a P/E that stands 20.3% lower. The industry P/E also went from 12.3 to 9.4, so DABID's gap with the industry narrowed from 5.0 to 4.4 points. Among the products, the gross margin of tablets (domestic) in the Shahrivar quarter went from 69.0% to 65.9% and that of other (domestic) from 56.6% to 53.6%; the margin of capsules (domestic) went from 57.4% to 55.7%, and only syrups and suspensions (domestic) rose (from 42.6% to 54.0%), on a small share of revenue (1.9%). The debt-to-assets ratio rose from 58.8% to 61.4% and is still below the industry's 72.0%. No amendments have been filed for the Tir to Shahrivar monthly reports.

4. DABID profit forecast for fiscal year 1405

According to the company's own forecast, DABID's gross profit in fiscal year 1405 will reach 20,878.4 billion tomans. This forecast was published on Codal together with the financial statements for the 9 months ending Shahrivar 1405, and the latest version of its letter dates from 30 Mehr 1405; with this version the company lowered its previous forecast (the comparison is at the end of this section). For the 3 remaining months of the year, the company has forecast the volume and amount of sales of each product, the cost of sales and general expenses. The "12-month estimate" column is the sum of the actual performance of the first 9 months and the estimate for the next 3 months. All of these figures are the company's own estimates, not Fundai's analysis.

DABID operating revenue forecast for fiscal year 1405 by product (volume in the company's reporting unit, amounts in billion tomans)
ProductActual 9-month sales volumeEstimated volume for the remaining 3 monthsActual 9-month sales amountEstimated amount for the remaining 3 months12-month estimate
Tablets (domestic)38,305,40716,300,00014,983.18,200.023,183.1
Other (domestic)3,569,7481,520,0005,426.83,000.08,426.8
Capsules (domestic)6,962,1733,000,0003,454.71,890.05,344.7
Syrups and suspensions (domestic)8,528,8933,620,000466.7257.0723.7
Total operating revenueNot additiveNot additive24,331.413,347.037,678.4
Actual cost of sales and the company's estimate for the rest of fiscal year 1405 (billion tomans)
ItemActual 9 monthsEstimate for the remaining 3 months12-month estimate
Direct materials consumed9,036.06,526.715,562.7
Direct production labor375.1270.9646.0
Production overhead3,419.62,470.05,889.6
Cost of goods produced12,791.99,256.422,048.3
Change in finished goods inventory−3,404.8−1,843.5−5,248.3
Cost of goods sold9,387.17,412.916,800.0
DABID estimated profit and loss for fiscal year 1405 based on the company's forecast, against the previous fiscal year (billion tomans)
LineActual 1404Estimate 1405Change
Operating revenue14,417.937,678.4+161.3%
Cost of operating revenue−5,999.0−16,800.0180.0% growth
Gross profit8,418.820,878.4+148.0%
Selling, administrative and general expenses−2,391.0−5,863.8145.2% growth
Gross profit margin (change in percentage points)58.4%55.4%−3.0
Gross profit per share (rials, on 56 billion shares)Not calculated3,728Not calculated
Assumptions behind the DABID profit forecast for fiscal year 1405
VariableCurrent performance or basisCompany forecast assumption
Tablet (domestic) sales volume38,305,408 hundred-unit packs in the first 9 months of the year54,605,407 hundred-unit packs for the whole year
Tablet (domestic) selling price596.0 thousand tomans per 100 units in Shahrivar 1405503.1 thousand tomans per 100 units in the remaining 3 months
Cost of sales9,387.1 billion tomans in the 9 months ending Shahrivar 140516,800.0 billion tomans for the whole year
Operating expenses (selling, administrative and general)3,012.0 billion tomans in the 9 months ending Shahrivar 14055,863.8 billion tomans for the whole year
Net profit8,925.8 billion tomans in the 9 months ending Shahrivar 1405Not estimated
Earnings per share (EPS)1,594 rials in the 9 months ending Shahrivar 1405Not estimated

Operating revenue in the company's estimate

The company has estimated operating revenue for the whole of fiscal year 1405 at 37,678.4 billion tomans; 161.3% growth on the previous fiscal year. Since the first 9 months had actual sales of 24,331.4 billion tomans, 13,347.0 billion tomans remain for the 3 remaining months, which is 4,449.0 billion tomans a month. This figure is above the monthly average for Tir to Shahrivar (11,090.2 billion tomans over 3 months, or 3,696.7 a month), by 20.3% in total, and below Shahrivar's own sales (5,561.8); so the company has assumed neither a continuation of the Shahrivar level nor a return to the level before it.

Cost of sales in the company's estimate

Direct materials consumed are the largest component of cost of sales, and the company has estimated them at 15,562.7 billion tomans for the whole year. The estimated total cost of sales is 16,800.0 billion tomans, up 180.0% on the previous fiscal year. This time cost growth is faster than revenue growth (161.3%); for this reason the company has assumed a gross profit margin of 55.4% for the year, whereas last year it was 58.4%.

Estimated profit and loss and the assumed product prices

The company's estimate goes as far as gross profit and general expenses. Other income and expenses, finance costs and tax are not included, so full-year earnings per share cannot be derived from it. The latest realized figure is trailing twelve-month (TTM) earnings per share, which came to 2,006 rials. We have explained how it is calculated in What is earnings per share (EPS).

The key point of the assumptions table is the price gap: the company has assumed about 503.1 thousand tomans per 100 units for tablets (domestic) for the 3 remaining months, whereas the price in the latest month was 596.0 thousand tomans. If prices stay near the current level, actual revenue and gross profit could come in above the company's estimate; if prices come down, this gap narrows. One caution is needed: the monthly price is calculated from sales before discounts, but the tablet sales amount in the forecast table appears to be net of discounts (14,983.1 billion tomans over 9 months, against 17,318.3 in the monthly reports), and discounts in Shahrivar were 19.9% of that month's sales. So part of this gap may simply be a difference of basis.

New forecast versus the previous forecast

With the 9-month statements, the company revised its fiscal year 1405 forecast. The previous version came on Codal with the 6-month report on 16 Shahrivar 1405 and the new version on 30 Mehr 1405. The most important point of this version of the fundamental analysis of DABID is that the gross profit forecast was reduced: from 22,000.0 to 20,878.4 billion tomans, which is 1,121.6 billion tomans less.

DABID fiscal year 1405 forecast: the version filed with the 6-month report (16 Shahrivar 1405) against the version filed with the 9-month report (30 Mehr 1405), billion tomans
LinePrevious forecast (6 months)New forecast (9 months)Change
Operating revenue37,500.037,678.4+0.5%
Cost of operating revenue−15,500.0−16,800.08.4% growth
Gross profit22,000.020,878.4−5.1%
Selling, administrative and general expenses−5,863.8−5,863.8Unchanged
Gross profit margin (change in percentage points)58.7%55.4%−3.3
Gross profit per share (rials)3,9293,728−5.1%

The reduction did not come from sales, because estimated revenue stayed effectively the same (178.4 billion tomans more). It came from the cost side: cost of sales was estimated 1,300.0 billion tomans higher, and the estimated gross margin for the year went from 58.7% to 55.4%. Selling, administrative and general expenses did not change (5,863.8). Within cost of sales, direct materials consumed went from 11,801.7 to 15,562.7 billion tomans, which is 3,761.0 more; part of this increase was offset by a larger change in finished goods inventory (from −2,180.0 to −5,248.3), and the cost of goods sold rose by only 1,300.0. Another point is the margin the company assumes for the final 3 months: the gross profit remaining for the year (20,878.4 minus the actual 14,944.3) on the remaining revenue gives a margin of about 44.5%, against 61.4% in the actual 9 months and 60.3% in the Shahrivar quarter. In the previous forecast, the implied margin for the remaining 6 months was 56.7%, against 62.3% in the actual 6 months; that is, both times the company assumed a remaining margin lower than actual performance, but this time the gap is much larger.

12-month sales estimate for DABID's main products in the previous and new fiscal year 1405 forecasts (billion tomans)
ProductPrevious forecastNew forecastChange
Tablets (domestic)26,833.423,183.1−13.6%
Capsules (domestic)5,356.95,344.7−0.2%
Syrups and suspensions (domestic)671.6723.7+7.8%

No line was added or removed in the product table, and all four items appear in both versions. Tablets (domestic) lowered their 12-month estimate by 13.6%, even though the full-year sales volume stayed almost the same (54,000,000 to 54,605,407 hundred-unit packs). What changed is the price assumption for the remaining 3 months: from 627.6 (previous version, for the remaining 6 months) to 503.1 thousand tomans per 100 units, which is 19.8% lower. In return, the assumed volume for the remaining 3 months is high: 16,300,000 hundred-unit packs, against 12,457,376 hundred-unit packs in Tir to Shahrivar (the difference between the new 9-month volume and the previous version's 6-month volume), which is 30.8% more. Capsules and syrups and suspensions stayed about the same. What held up total revenue was the "Other (domestic)" item, whose 12-month estimate went from 4,638.2 to 8,426.8 billion tomans (81.7% more), because its actual 9-month sales came to 5,426.8.

The new assumed price for tablets (503.1) is 15.6% below the latest month's price (596.0), whereas the previous assumed price (627.6) was 5.3% above it. That is, the company moved its price assumption from "above the current market" to "below it", although part of this gap may come from a difference of basis (before and after discounts). The cautious conclusion is this: if prices stay near the Shahrivar level, tablets in the final 3 months could produce revenue above the estimated 8,200.0 billion tomans, provided the sales volume also reaches 16,300,000 hundred-unit packs; and if the volume stays lower, or cost of sales gets close to the estimated figure (7,412.9 billion tomans over 3 months, against 4,397.8 in the Shahrivar quarter), the gaps will close. This is a condition, not our forecast.

5. DABID valuation and comparison with the industry

On a trailing twelve-month P/E of 13.8x, DABID trades at a higher valuation than the whole pharmaceutical materials and products industry; the industry figure is 9.4x and the market figure 7.2x. On 29 Mehr 1405, DABID's closing price was 27,630 rials and its market value was 154,728 billion tomans.

Trailing twelve-month P/E of the 8 largest companies in the pharmaceutical materials and products group by market value that have a P/E (DABID among them), the whole industry and the whole Tehran Stock Exchange on 29 Mehr 1405 (x)
SymbolTTM P/E (x)
DABID13.8
DARU12.3
DEDANA11.5
DEFARA12.6
KASPIAN6.3
DALBER6.5
DEGHAZI7.0
DELER6.3
Whole industry9.4
Whole Tehran Stock Exchange7.2
Valuation ratios of the 8 largest companies in the pharmaceutical materials and products group by market value that have a P/E, on 29 Mehr 1405
SymbolTTM P/ETTM P/SP/BTTM net profit margin
DABID13.85.38.738.5%
DARU12.34.36.035.4%
DEDANA11.53.88.033.1%
DEFARA12.68.211.665.5%
KASPIAN6.33.35.851.9%
DALBER6.52.74.041.1%
DEGHAZI7.03.55.649.5%
DELER6.32.44.837.3%
Whole industry9.41.96.120.2%
Whole Tehran Stock Exchange7.21.73.223.0%

According to the DABID financial ratios, the company's twelve-month P/S is 5.3x, against 1.9x for the industry and 1.7x for the market. Its P/B is 8.7x, while the industry has 6.1x and the market 3.2x. The industry and market figures are ratios of two totals, that is, the market value of the whole group divided by the profit or sales of the whole group, not a simple average of the companies' ratios.

The chart above places DABID's P/E next to the 8 largest companies of the group by market value that have a P/E. DABID has the highest P/E among them (13.8x); DEFARA with 12.6x and DARU with 12.3x come after it.

DABID's twelve-month net profit margin is 38.5% and the industry's is 20.2%; the higher margin explains part of the higher P/E, because each rial of sales delivers more profit to the shareholder. The monthly reports after Shahrivar 1405 are not yet in the twelve-month EPS.

DABID's PEGY ratio, that is, the twelve-month P/E divided by operating profit growth plus cash yield, is 0.08. A figure below one suggests the P/E is not high relative to current profit growth, but this only describes past data and does not guarantee that the same growth will continue. The forward P/E has not been calculated either, because the company has not forecast the year's net profit.

6. Opportunities and risks of investing in DABID

The DABID data show three opportunities and three risks, and each traces back to a figure in the earlier sections. With the company's next report, all six may change.

Opportunities:

Risks:

To follow these variables, read the DABID monthly reports for product prices and sales together with the DABID financial ratios for the P/E and the debt ratio after each new report.

7. Summary of the fundamental analysis of DABID

The fundamental analysis of DABID shows that the company's profitability depends, more than anything else, on the price and sales volume of tablets and on their profit margin. In the first 9 months of fiscal year 1405, the company's sales grew 153.7% on the same period last year and passed the sales of the whole previous fiscal year.

The gross margin of the latest quarter was 60.3%; 5.4 percentage points below the highest historical figure for this same quarter (65.7%) and 7.0 percentage points above the 17-year average (53.3%).

In the letter it published on Codal on 30 Mehr 1405, the company estimated its fiscal year 1405 gross profit at 20,878.4 billion tomans and its gross profit per share at 3,728 rials; this forecast is a reduction from the 16 Shahrivar version (22,000.0 billion tomans), because the cost of sales was estimated higher and revenue stayed almost the same. The company's estimated gross margin is 55.4%; lower than last year's 58.4% and higher than the 24-year average of the annual margin (49.6%). These figures are the company's own estimates.

On 29 Mehr 1405, the market priced DABID at a trailing twelve-month P/E of 13.8x, against 9.4x for the whole industry. So the current price already contains part of the company's high profitability, and the coming reports will determine how durable this gap with the industry is. A past figure is not a guarantee of the future.

Where should we start the fundamental analysis of DABID?

Start with the sales mix and the monthly reports to see which product makes the profit. At DABID, tablets are the largest item. Then read the income statement and the margins, and finally set the valuation ratios beside the industry figure. All figures in this analysis come from the standalone statements of the parent company, not the consolidated ones.

Why does the share of tablets in sales differ from their share of quarterly revenue?

They are two different bases. The 61.1% share is calculated on 9-month cumulative sales before discounts. The 61.6% share comes from the revenue of the quarter ending Shahrivar 1405, which covers only one quarter. The two figures are close this time, but the period and basis differ, so they should not be used in place of each other.

What is the difference between the 9-month net profit margin and the TTM net profit margin?

The 9-month margin divides the net profit of those nine months by the operating revenue of the same nine months, and came to 36.7%. The TTM margin uses the profit and revenue of the last four quarters and is 38.5%. They have different bases, and putting them side by side is not an apples-to-apples comparison; compare only like with like.

Who gave the 37,678 billion toman estimate, and what does it include?

The company itself published this estimate on Codal with the financial statements for the 9 months ending Shahrivar 1405, and the latest version of the letter dates from 30 Mehr 1405; the previous version had estimated revenue at 37,500 billion tomans. Each "12-month" column is the sum of 9 actual months and 3 estimated months. The estimate goes as far as gross profit and general expenses and does not include the year's net profit or earnings per share.

Why is DABID's P/E 13.8x, yet a forward P/E cannot be built from the estimated EPS?

The twelve-month P/E is obtained by dividing the closing price by the earnings per share of the last twelve months; this profit is realized. The figure of 3,728 rials is the gross profit per share in the company's estimate, not the net profit per share. Because the estimate lacks other income, finance costs and tax, a forward P/E cannot be calculated.

Should the industry P/E be taken as the average of the companies' P/Es?

No. The 9.4x figure for the whole pharmaceutical materials and products industry is the market value of all the group's companies divided by their total net profit. Larger companies carry more weight in it. It is not the same as a simple average of the companies' ratios.

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