SHAPNA Fundamental Analysis, Mehr 1405: Profit Forecast and Valuation

Fundai Fundamental Analysis Team · October 21, 2026 · 14 min read

Last updated: October 25, 2026, 01:29

SHAPNA's six-month sales got ahead of the whole of last year; this analysis shows that the jump came from price, how far the profit margin has risen, and what estimate the company has given.

In this article, the fundamental analysis of SHAPNA, meaning the fundamental position of Isfahan Oil Refining Company (symbol SHAPNA), is examined. SHAPNA also publishes consolidated reports, but all figures in this article come from the standalone financial statements of the parent company. Using the monthly reports published on the Codal system, we assess revenue and profitability trends, the state of profit margins, the factors that affect future performance and the company's valuation ratios. Finally, based on the financial information published up to 12 Mehr 1405, we review the profit outlook and the main opportunities and risks of this symbol.

3 key points in the fundamental analysis of SHAPNA

1. Introduction to Isfahan Oil Refining Company and its industry

Isfahan Oil Refining Company (SHAPNA) operates in the refineries group and, among symbols with a P/E, is the largest company in this group by market value. According to its articles of association, the company's main business is refining and processing crude oil and other hydrocarbons and producing petroleum products such as gasoline, kerosene, gas oil, fuel oil and their derivatives and by-products.

According to SHAPNA's monthly reports on Codal, the company's sales basket consists of gas oil with 10 to 50 sulfur, light fuel oil 380, gas oil with sulfur above 5000, octane 87 gasoline similar to Euro 5, octane 91 Euro 5 motor gasoline and vacuum bottoms, and all sales are in the domestic market. In the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405, gas oil with 10 to 50 sulfur alone made up 35.7% of the sales amount; so the company's profitability depends, more than on anything else, on the price and sales volume of this one product.

SHAPNA trades on the Bourse market, has 627 billion shares, and its market value reached 859,938 billion tomans on 12 Mehr 1405. The company's fiscal year closes at the end of Esfand.

On the cost side, the largest raw material purchase in the 6 months ended Shahrivar 1405 was light crude oil, at 98.8% of the purchase amount. That means the price of this one input affects cost of goods sold more than anything else.

You can see the revenue and product mix on the SHAPNA page on Fundai; the company's position in its industry is also covered on the refineries industry page.

2. Review of monthly reports and the SHAPNA sales trend

SHAPNA's sales in the first 6 months of fiscal year 1405 exceeded its sales for the whole of the previous fiscal year. According to the SHAPNA monthly reports, the company sold 1,028,447.2 billion tomans in these 6 months; 190.2% growth from the same period last year (354,340.3 billion tomans). Sales for the whole of the previous fiscal year were 836,121.8 billion tomans, so the first half of this year got ahead of all of last year. All of this revenue was recorded in the domestic market, and exports contributed nothing.

Sales in Shahrivar 1405 reached 260,557.7 billion tomans; 28.7% growth from Mordad 1405 (202,387.1 billion tomans) and 301.5% growth from Shahrivar 1404 (64,889.0 billion tomans). In all six months this year, sales were higher than in the same month last year; so the jump is not limited to one particular month. The charts show each month's sales next to the same month last year, and the two years' cumulative paths side by side.

The table above sorts products by their share of cumulative sales over the first 6 months and compares the Shahrivar 1405 price with Mordad 1405 and Shahrivar 1404. The price is obtained by dividing the month's sales amount by that month's sales volume.

The price of gas oil with 10 to 50 sulfur in Shahrivar 1405 reached 163.4 million tomans per cubic meter; 11.2% above the previous month and 338.4% above Shahrivar 1404. The cumulative sales volume of this product in the first 6 months was 3,265,050 cubic meters, against 3,854,492 cubic meters in the same period last year. So the revenue growth of this product came from price, not from sales volume. "No sales" in the table means the product recorded no sales in that month.

SHAPNA sells part of its products on the Iran Mercantile Exchange. Each month's trades there close before that month's monthly report is published on Codal, so they can help give a preview of the next report. But this preview does not match the size of the report. Domestic rial sales on the Iran Mercantile Exchange in Shahrivar 1405 were 14,110.5 billion tomans, against 260,557.7 billion tomans of domestic sales in the monthly report for the same month, that is 5.4%. In Mordad 1405 this share was 5.2% (10,447.3 billion tomans on the Iran Mercantile Exchange against 202,387.1 billion tomans on Codal). Khordad 1405 was an outlier month: 1,162.0 billion tomans on the Iran Mercantile Exchange against 143,638.2 billion tomans of Codal domestic sales, that is 0.8%. So the Iran Mercantile Exchange covers only a small part of SHAPNA's sales, and mostly shows the direction of price and volume for that part.

Domestic rial sales on the Iran Mercantile Exchange in Mehr 1405 (through 28 Mehr, the last trading day of the month) were 18,102.4 billion tomans; 28.3% more than Shahrivar 1405 (14,110.5 billion tomans). The traded volume also rose from 224,575 tons in Shahrivar 1405 to 248,050 tons in Mehr 1405, that is 10.5% more. If the pattern of previous months repeats, domestic sales for Mehr 1405 in the Codal report could also come in above Shahrivar. This is only a sign of direction, not an estimate of the reported figure.

3. Analysis of SHAPNA's financial statements and profit margins

SHAPNA's financial statements show the company's revenue and profit have multiplied over the last 5 fiscal years, and the 6-month 1405 profit margin is far above the same period last year. According to the SHAPNA income statement, annual operating revenue rose from 213,077.9 billion tomans in fiscal year 1400 to 847,187.3 billion tomans in fiscal year 1404. Net profit over the same period climbed from 16,599.6 to 89,634.4 billion tomans. In fiscal year 1404, revenue grew 51.5% and net profit grew 180.3%.

The annual gross profit margin over these 5 years ranged between 7.2% and 13.8%. Over the same period operating revenue grew 297.6% and cost of goods sold grew 276.9%; so sales grew faster than cost and lifted the gross margin from 9.1% in 1400 to 13.8% in 1404.

Quarterly and period profit margin

The gross profit margin for the 3 months ended Shahrivar 1405 was 24.8%; against 13.2% in the previous quarter and 13.6% in the same quarter last year. That means the margin almost doubled in one quarter. In the history of this same quarter, the lowest gross margin is -0.4% (year 1392) and the 15-year average is 8.8%; so this quarter stands far above the average.

The net profit margin of that quarter was 20.4%; against 10.0% in the previous quarter and 8.4% in the same quarter last year. The lowest net margin in its history is 1.0% (year 1394) and the 15-year average is 7.7%; this quarter is above the average in net margin too.

SHAPNA's latest interim report covers 6 months, and period analysis is compared only with the same period last year. The 6-month gross profit margin rose from 12.5% to 20.5% and the net margin from 8.6% to 16.5%. The full trend is on the SHAPNA profit margin history page.

Gross profit margin by product

The gross margin of gas oil (domestic), the largest revenue item, was 24.1% in the 3 months ended Shahrivar 1405; in the same quarter last year this figure was 15.4%. So this product's margin is up from last year. The improvement in the company's overall margin also depends most on these larger-share products; for each product's margin in the Fundai table, read the same-quarter-last-year column and the historical average side by side.

4. SHAPNA profit forecast for fiscal year 1405

In its own estimate, the company has stated SHAPNA's gross profit for fiscal year 1405 at 466,537.2 billion tomans. This estimate was published on Codal together with the financial statements for the 6 months ended Shahrivar 1405, and its latest version is from the letter of 29 Mehr 1405. For the remaining 6 months of the year, the company has forecast the sales volume and amount of each product, cost of goods sold and general expenses. The "12-month estimate" column is the sum of actual performance in the first 6 months and the company's estimate for the next 6 months. All of these figures are the company's own estimates.

Operating revenue

The company has estimated operating revenue for the whole of fiscal year 1405 at 2,528,061.9 billion tomans; that is 198.4% growth from the previous fiscal year (847,187.3 billion tomans).

Cost of goods sold

Direct materials consumed are the largest component of cost of goods sold, and the company has estimated them at 2,049,538.6 billion tomans for the whole year. Total estimated cost of goods sold is 2,061,524.7 billion tomans, up 182.4% from the previous fiscal year (730,003.9 billion tomans). So in the company's estimate, cost rises more slowly than revenue and the estimated gross margin reaches 18.5%.

Estimated profit and loss

The company's forecast ends at gross profit and general expenses, and other income and expenses, finance costs and tax are not included. For this reason, SHAPNA's earnings per share for the whole year cannot be derived from this estimate. Realized earnings per share for the trailing twelve months (TTM) is 3,657 rials; how it is calculated is covered in What is earnings per share (EPS).

The key point in the assumptions table is the price gap: the company has assumed vacuum bottoms (domestic) at about 39.6 million tomans per cubic meter for the rest of the year, while the latest month's price was 35.9 million tomans. The current price is below the company's assumption; if it stays at this level, the actual revenue of this product could come in below the company's estimate.

5. SHAPNA valuation and comparison with the industry

SHAPNA trades at a trailing 12-month P/E below the figure for the whole refineries industry. On 12 Mehr 1405, SHAPNA's closing price was 13,710 rials and its market value was 859,938 billion tomans.

According to the SHAPNA financial ratios, the company's trailing 12-month (TTM) P/E is 3.7 times, against 5.1 times for the whole industry and 8.3 times for the whole Bourse market. That means the market pays less than it does for the industry and the market for each rial of SHAPNA's profit over the past twelve months. The company's P/S TTM is 0.6 times (industry 0.7 and market 1.8) and its P/B is 3.0 times (industry 3.5 and market 3.3). The industry and market figures are the ratio of the whole group's market value to the whole group's profit or sales, not a simple average of the companies' ratios.

The chart above puts SHAPNA's P/E next to the 7 other largest companies in the refineries group by market value that have a P/E. SHAPNA's net profit margin TTM is 15.0%, against 14.7% for the industry; so SHAPNA's lower P/E comes with a margin slightly above the industry's. Profit for periods after Shahrivar 1405 has not yet been reported in interim financial statements and is not in the EPS TTM.

SHAPNA's PEGY (P/E divided by operating profit growth plus cash yield) is 0.01. A number below one means the P/E is not high relative to current profit growth, but this number only measures past growth and there is no guarantee it will repeat. We have not calculated a forward P/E, because the company has not estimated the year's net profit. For a comparison with peers, also read the SHASPA fundamental analysis, Mehr 1405.

6. Investment opportunities and risks in SHAPNA

The SHAPNA data show three opportunities and two risks, each tied to one of the figures in the earlier sections. With the company's next report, this picture could change.

Opportunities: This year's cumulative sales were 190.2% above the same period last year. The gross profit margin for the quarter ended Shahrivar 1405 (24.8%) is above the 15-year average for this same quarter (8.8%), and each rial of sales has left more profit. The whole-industry figure is also higher than SHAPNA's for P/E; so the market pays less for each rial of the company's past profit than it does for the industry.

Risks: The latest month's price of vacuum bottoms (domestic) was 35.9 million tomans per cubic meter, below the company's assumption of 39.6 million tomans for the rest of the year; if this gap stays, the actual revenue of this product will fall behind the company's estimate. The debt-to-assets ratio is also 37.8%, above 35.9% for the industry; the company had finance costs of 3,241.8 billion tomans in fiscal year 1404, and a rise in interest rates could make this cost heavier.

In the next monthly report, watch the price of vacuum bottoms and the sales of high-share products such as gas oil alongside the company's assumptions.

7. Summary of the SHAPNA fundamental analysis

The fundamental analysis of SHAPNA gives a clear picture: both sales and profit margin in the first six months of 1405 are close to or equal to the highest levels in their history. According to the company's monthly reports and standalone financial statements on Codal, 6-month sales were 190.2% above the same period last year. The gross profit margin for the quarter ended Shahrivar 1405 reached 24.8%; this figure is both the highest margin for this quarter in the company's history and far above its historical average (8.8%).

The company itself has estimated gross profit for fiscal year 1405 at 466,537.2 billion tomans, that is gross profit of 7,438 rials per share. The estimated gross margin is 18.5%; above 13.8% in the previous fiscal year and also above the company's 25-year average annual margin (10.3%). This estimate ends at gross profit, so the whole-year earnings per share is not built from it.

On valuation, the gap between SHAPNA and the industry in trailing 12-month P/E is clear: 3.7 times for SHAPNA against 5.1 times for the whole industry, on 12 Mehr 1405. That means the market pays less for each rial of SHAPNA's profit over the past twelve months than the whole-industry figure.

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